Better without Jordan Reed

Blasphemous, right? On the other hand, here is why saying that the offense is better without Reed makes sense. In the passing game, Jordan Reed is a security blanket. If he's out there, offensive coordinator Sean McVay is more likely to call plays for him (McVay was formerly the TE coach) and Cousins is more likely to look to throw to Reed. Without Reed in the game, McVay needs to distribute the ball more and defenses won't key clamp down just on the Skins' best TE.

In the running game, Niles Paul is a better blocker. Witness the Matt Jones touchdown right before halftime. Not saying that Reed may not have made the same block at the point of attack but Paul definitively made the play that enabled the Jones sprint outside.

The other notable difference on offense is at Center. Spencer Long has been playing in place of the injured Kory Lichtensteiger. I'm not someone who watches game film so I can't definitively said Long is an upgrade but here are the facts:

• Long is six years younger (25 vs. 31)
• Long is bigger (6'4" and 315 vs. 6'2" and 292)
• Long has been injury-free (vs. Lichtensteiger's seond consecutive year on IR and a torn ACL that led to IR in 2011)

Long had a nice pulling block against the Browns to spring Chris Thompson free for a big gainer. He was also in position to make a key block during Jamison Crowder's screen pass TD against the Giants although Trent Williams ended up taking out that defender as well as Keenan Robinson.

Marc Trestman

Fired! Not surprising. The Skins are getting into the habit of getting coordinators fired. 

Last year, the Saints canned their DC Rob Ryan after Washington torched them for 47 points in Week 10.

Redskins vs Ravens - Escape!

Washington sneaked into Baltimore and escaped with a win over a superior team. The Ravens easily could have have kept running the ball at the Skins over and over again but inexplicably stopped the ground game. 

Instead, without injured wideout Steve Smith, Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense was flummoxed by Joe Barry's defense. 

The Skins benefited not only from a failed but aggressive call with the poorly executed fake field goal but spectacularly from the fumbled interception into the end zone.

Yes, Washington certainly played competitively and had missed opportunities of their own. Most importantly, I was really confused they they had 3rd and 1 six times and tried passing on ALL SIX of those plays. They failed ALL SIX times. Yes, the Ravens defense is stout but the most convertible type of 3rd down is 3rd and 1! Matt Jones could have attempted to push the pile, they could have tried a QB sneak, they could have tested the edge, they could have even run a naked QB bootleg if they wanted to keep their pass-heavy look.   

That said, if the Ravens had done nothing but call 15-20 more running plays, the game easily would have tilted in their favor. 

Redskins vs. Steelers

Washington was completely outmatched. The Steeles had a balanced offense, able to both run and pass effectively. 

The Skins' offense couldn't run the ball nor stop the run when they needed to. Joe Barry should have changed it up early to have Norman match up with Antonio Brown after the first score. 

Sean McVay should have adapted when Couins wasn't getting pressured with just three or four rushers. He should have taken more time to survey the field and let his receivers find soft spots in the zone.

If the coaches don't adapt, this is going to be an extremely long season.

Glimmer of Hope for the Running Game?

Mack Brown had an impressive tune-up in the final preseason game. He was a practice squad player last year, signed as an undrafted free agent. However, he looked decisive in his cuts, he followed his blocking, and he showed off speed to score on the long run.

It's hard to tell how much credit to give when many of the players out there won't be on the regular season rosters. Nevertheless, there's at least a glimmer of hope that Brown and/or Robert Kelley can push Matt Jones and Chris Thompson to uplevel the running game. If not, I hope Scot McCloughan feels comfortable dialing up Pierre Thomas' number.

Preseason Thoughts

1. The Skins' running game is non-existent. It's surprising to me that famed offensive line coach isn't getting the line to consistently create holes. Instead, there is regular penetration into the backfield.

2. Kirk Cousins was decent but everything was short. In preseason, i suppose it doesn't matter but it would have been confidence building to see some deeper throws.

3. Upon further review, Jared Goff (Cal) didn't look as bad as the stats make it seem. After the shaky start with a blitz that forced the INT, Goff got into a rhythm on his second drive with a few consecutive completions.

4. Dak Prescott (Cowboys) looked amazing. Of course, it helps to have All-Pro Dez Bryant but he showed the poise and decisiveness of an established veteran quarterback. Uh oh.

5. Carson Wentz (Eagles) looked shaky. Nothing worrisome at this juncture but certainly neither Goff nor Wentz were as impressive as Prescott.

Sad State of Affairs

Chris Cooley reviewed in excruciating detail all the ways in which RG3 failed in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers game.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/dc-sports-bog/wp/2014/11/19/chris-cooley-rgiii-was-so-bad-i-cant-assess-the-rest-of-the-redskins-offense/

The Jay Gruden Outlook

New head coach (again)... what do we really know about him?

1. Jay Gruden was Cincinnati's offensive coordinator and helped develop Andy Dalton and AJ Green.
2. He's Jon Gruden's brother and has ties with Bruce Allen to the Tampa Bay Bucs organization.
3. He does have head coaching experience, albeit with the Arena Football League and United Football League, for both the Orlando Predators and Florida Tuskers, respectively.

4. Gruden also has ties with Haslett, for whom he served as offensive coordinator when Haslett was his predecessor as head coach of the Tuskers. 

5. Unfortunately, he didn't recognize Marvin Jones' playmaking ability and has played Mohamed Sanu in front of him the last two years.
6. He runs a West Coast system but will run more power running plays and fewer stretch running plays.

Fantasy Football 2014 Prognostications

With the Gruden West Coast offense and the DeSean Jackson signing, here's the general consensus from the media, mixed in with my own opinion:

1. Jackson's own numbers won't match his own career numbers from last year. He's the #2 option behind Garcon.
2. Garcon will see fewer receptions but his yardage and TD total may increase since there are plenty of other threats.
3. Alfred Morris will run inside the tackles more but will probably yield playing time to the speedier Roy Helu, who is more of a threat in the passing game.
4. Jordan Reed can be a difference-maker running drag routes and down the seam as long as (1) he stays healthy, and (2) the offensive line sufficiently protects RG3.
5. RG3 will have a much better year than last year. He'll be used more similarly to Russell Wilson and use his running ability to scramble and buy time rather than be a huge part of the running game offense. So his running total may be even less than year but he'll be much more effective throwing the ball.

DeSean!

What an exciting signing and way to shake up the NFC East! Suddenly, the Redskins have a potent offense so long as they can stay healthy (knock on wood). Given his small stature, it's somewhat surprising that Jackson hasn't experienced long bouts of game absences due to injury. We've already seen firsthand how talented RG3 and Jordan Reed can be but we have also seen them both miss games.


A second reason to love DeSean Jackson - he hails from my Alma Mater, UC Berkeley. As a college player, Jackson led a few talented Cal squads and even made the cover of the EA Sports NCAA '09 game, two years removed from his last game.

On the flip side, though, Rich Tandler makes a great point on CSNWashington.com about the very limited window Washington has before contracts start blowing up in the next 2-3 years. Despite core talent being young, if they all perform as well as expected, the team won't be able to keep everyone.

Summary of Preview Heading into the Season

This Washington Post article nicely summarizes things to watch out for as we inch closer to the midpoint of the season:

http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/football-insider/wp/2013/08/17/redskins-training-camp-what-weve-learned-and-the-questions-that-remain/

Curse you, Blogger app, for not making it simple to hyperlink!

Here's my assessment from digesting all the news.

1. The pass rush with be better thanks to the return of Orakpo, assuming he stays healthy

2. Helu will be able to provide speedy depth to spell Morris

3. Garçon and Fred Davis will help the passing offense tremendously 

4. The secondary is still a question mark since the rookies will take their lumps, Thomas is out for the season, Meriweather is still not 100%

5. When called upon, Kirk Cousins will be able to step in and perform as ably as he did at the end of last season

6. I suspect the running game will be less effective with defenses around the league gearing up to stop the read-option and because the Skins will be confident in their own passing attack and so they will resort to the pass more frequently. As a result, the Skins are far less likely to repeat as the league's top rushing offense which would have negative implications around ball control, turnovers, and pressure on the defense.

Third Year Players

Tarik El-Bashir of CSN Washington reminds us that the Skins have retained a surprisingly high number of their 2011 class. In fact, it seems like everyone!

Led by Ryan Kerrigan, the draft class also features contributors like Leonard Hankerson, backup Rbs Helu and Royster, reserve safety DeJon Gomes, converted TE Niles Paul, waiting-to-break-out star Jarvis Jenkins, and speedster Aldrick Robinson.

To answer the question El-Bashir posed, I think this year will see the elimination of Gomes and Royster, Paul, and possibly Robinson from the roster. I predict the RB situation will be Helu as the backup with one of the two RBs winning the 3rd RB spot, assuming that they can be pass-catching threats out of the backfield as well as special teamers. Niles Paul will also likely be an odd man out, as it seems that Jordan Reed is almost assured of a spot, Davis is the starter, and Logan Paulsen is entrenched as the blocking TE.

2013 NFL Draft

The draft has come and gone. With blue-chip prospects missing from the top of the draft, this was a year the Skins benefited by using that additional bargaining chip for RG3.

How did the Redskins do? They got exactly what they needed. Most importantly, they drafted a likely starter at safety alongside Brandon Meriweather in Fresno St. player Phillip Thomas in the fourth round. In addition, depending on how quickly 2nd rounder Amerson develops, Jim Haslett may be able to move DeAngelo Hall to safety also.

Jordan Reed is an intriguing prospect as a multi-talented threat. I believe there was an effect of addition by subtraction when Fred Davis was injured. How so? Logan Paulsen is a much better run-blocker than Davis and Kyle Shanahan probably leaned on the run more heavily with Paulsen as the primary TE than he would have with Davis still in there. Jordan Reed will basically push Niles Paul to develop - and if he doesn't, then he should lose his spot.

Instead of two scat backs, I would have liked to see the team draft another RB in the mold of Alfred Morris - a 5-10, 210 pounder, as a backup 1-cut downhill running workhorse. Neither Helu nor Royster seems capable of filling that role.

As a Cal alum, I'm shocked that Keenan Allen fell all the way to the third round. He was projected to go as a mid-to-late first rounder. Certainly the Skins should have drafted him instead of Jordan Reed if he was still available there. In fact, it may have made sense to draft Allen instead of Amerson as my guess is that Allen will be a better pro and have a decent career. Not sure about Amerson. Allen would be a great #2 to complement Garcon.

Reasons to be Pessimistic

In the last post, I listed a few reasons to be hopeful about next season. The flip side is that there are plenty of reasons to keep expectations tempered.

1) RG3's injury: He will probably not play until until October, and even then it might not be 100%. Could be tough sledding early on without him.

2) Defensive adjustments to the Pistol: Defensive coordinators have seen the read-option and the Pistol spread like mad this season. They have a whole summer to game-plan for RG3, Cam Newton, Kaepernick, and Russell Wilson. They now have a whole season's worth of game footage to pull together the defensive answers. The Redskins offense, left unchanged, won't be novel anymore and will struggle much more.

3) Cap penalty: The salary cap hit could mean free agents like Fred Davis won't be back and that it will be hard to sign needed starters in the secondary.

4) Schedule: This year, the Skins played a last-place schedule and next year they will play a first-place schedule, including San Francisco, Atlanta, Minnesota, Green Bay and Denver.

Great season

Not a great ending for RG3 with his knee surgery but we'll know more during the summer as he gets into rehab. Hopefully, he doesn't come back prematurely but comes back fully healthy when the beginning of the season rolls around.

In summary, though, a fantastic season for Skins fans everywhere! The highlight, of course, was beating the hated archenemy Cowboys on prime-time TV on the last week of the season for the seventh consecutive win to take the NFC East, make the playoffs and send the Cowpokes home.

All kinds of reasons to be hopeful. RG3, Alfred Morris, Darrel Young, Garçon, Trent Williams dominating, return of Orakpo, improvement of D-line and Rob Jackson in the second half of the year... Hopefully Fred Davis will decide he wants to come back too. If not, that might be ok because then they'd have the stronger run-blocking Logan Paulsen in the lineup and might be inclined to run more often.

Prediction

Very few experts are prognosticating that the Skins end up victorious. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/dc-sports-bog/wp/2013/01/03/experts-lining-up-behind-the-seahawks/

35 out of 46 media experts predict a Seattle victory in Maryland, marking the 3rd consecutive time the Skins would be bounced in the playoffs by the Seahawks.

Hard to disagree, though.

Russell Wilson is just now starting to expand his offensive repertoire. Suddenly they are bludgeoning opponents to the tune of 58, 50, and 42 points.

The Seattle defense is a huge strength. Their corners are really big (6'2" and 6'3") and perfect for bump and run that would disrupt the timing of Kyle Shanahan's quick hitting passing game. They'll stack the box and play 1-on-1 outside with their corners. If Morris and the O-line can beat the Seahawks in the run game, the Skins have a chance.

Prediction: 30 - 16, Seahawks over the Redskins

DC Ratings Record

As an advertising professional, I love this other post by Dan Steinberg on the TV ratings for the Redskins-Cowboys Sunday Night matchup.

From the article:

The game earned a 44.6 rating in this market, according to Nielsen overnights — meaning about 1,053,000 homes in this market tuned into the game. It also earned a 68 percent share, meaning a strong majority of in-use televisions were tuned to that game. 

Nationally, the game was also the highest-rated NFL regular-season primetime game ever on NBC.

Celebrating Everywhere

As a fan removed from the DMV area, this piece by Washington Post writer Dan Steinberg resonated with me. I loved watching these YouTube clips of fans singing "Hail to the Redskins" across the country.

Few things in life are better than instant bond with strangers formed by rooting for your team in common.

Reasons to be worried

1. Dez Bryant is playing outstanding football
2. Romo has been very impressive as well
3. Demarco Murray didn't play the first time but will play tomorrow
4. Rob Ryan will know how to defend RG3 better the second time around

Red alert - trap game against the Eagles!

LeSean McCoy is back.
Nick Foles is playing way better. The game has slowed down for him.
Philly d-line is playing better.

Skins' o-line is banged up. This is going to be a tough one. Washington has to be careful to win the turnover battle.