Summary of Preview Heading into the Season

This Washington Post article nicely summarizes things to watch out for as we inch closer to the midpoint of the season:

http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/football-insider/wp/2013/08/17/redskins-training-camp-what-weve-learned-and-the-questions-that-remain/

Curse you, Blogger app, for not making it simple to hyperlink!

Here's my assessment from digesting all the news.

1. The pass rush with be better thanks to the return of Orakpo, assuming he stays healthy

2. Helu will be able to provide speedy depth to spell Morris

3. Garçon and Fred Davis will help the passing offense tremendously 

4. The secondary is still a question mark since the rookies will take their lumps, Thomas is out for the season, Meriweather is still not 100%

5. When called upon, Kirk Cousins will be able to step in and perform as ably as he did at the end of last season

6. I suspect the running game will be less effective with defenses around the league gearing up to stop the read-option and because the Skins will be confident in their own passing attack and so they will resort to the pass more frequently. As a result, the Skins are far less likely to repeat as the league's top rushing offense which would have negative implications around ball control, turnovers, and pressure on the defense.

Third Year Players

Tarik El-Bashir of CSN Washington reminds us that the Skins have retained a surprisingly high number of their 2011 class. In fact, it seems like everyone!

Led by Ryan Kerrigan, the draft class also features contributors like Leonard Hankerson, backup Rbs Helu and Royster, reserve safety DeJon Gomes, converted TE Niles Paul, waiting-to-break-out star Jarvis Jenkins, and speedster Aldrick Robinson.

To answer the question El-Bashir posed, I think this year will see the elimination of Gomes and Royster, Paul, and possibly Robinson from the roster. I predict the RB situation will be Helu as the backup with one of the two RBs winning the 3rd RB spot, assuming that they can be pass-catching threats out of the backfield as well as special teamers. Niles Paul will also likely be an odd man out, as it seems that Jordan Reed is almost assured of a spot, Davis is the starter, and Logan Paulsen is entrenched as the blocking TE.

2013 NFL Draft

The draft has come and gone. With blue-chip prospects missing from the top of the draft, this was a year the Skins benefited by using that additional bargaining chip for RG3.

How did the Redskins do? They got exactly what they needed. Most importantly, they drafted a likely starter at safety alongside Brandon Meriweather in Fresno St. player Phillip Thomas in the fourth round. In addition, depending on how quickly 2nd rounder Amerson develops, Jim Haslett may be able to move DeAngelo Hall to safety also.

Jordan Reed is an intriguing prospect as a multi-talented threat. I believe there was an effect of addition by subtraction when Fred Davis was injured. How so? Logan Paulsen is a much better run-blocker than Davis and Kyle Shanahan probably leaned on the run more heavily with Paulsen as the primary TE than he would have with Davis still in there. Jordan Reed will basically push Niles Paul to develop - and if he doesn't, then he should lose his spot.

Instead of two scat backs, I would have liked to see the team draft another RB in the mold of Alfred Morris - a 5-10, 210 pounder, as a backup 1-cut downhill running workhorse. Neither Helu nor Royster seems capable of filling that role.

As a Cal alum, I'm shocked that Keenan Allen fell all the way to the third round. He was projected to go as a mid-to-late first rounder. Certainly the Skins should have drafted him instead of Jordan Reed if he was still available there. In fact, it may have made sense to draft Allen instead of Amerson as my guess is that Allen will be a better pro and have a decent career. Not sure about Amerson. Allen would be a great #2 to complement Garcon.

Reasons to be Pessimistic

In the last post, I listed a few reasons to be hopeful about next season. The flip side is that there are plenty of reasons to keep expectations tempered.

1) RG3's injury: He will probably not play until until October, and even then it might not be 100%. Could be tough sledding early on without him.

2) Defensive adjustments to the Pistol: Defensive coordinators have seen the read-option and the Pistol spread like mad this season. They have a whole summer to game-plan for RG3, Cam Newton, Kaepernick, and Russell Wilson. They now have a whole season's worth of game footage to pull together the defensive answers. The Redskins offense, left unchanged, won't be novel anymore and will struggle much more.

3) Cap penalty: The salary cap hit could mean free agents like Fred Davis won't be back and that it will be hard to sign needed starters in the secondary.

4) Schedule: This year, the Skins played a last-place schedule and next year they will play a first-place schedule, including San Francisco, Atlanta, Minnesota, Green Bay and Denver.

Great season

Not a great ending for RG3 with his knee surgery but we'll know more during the summer as he gets into rehab. Hopefully, he doesn't come back prematurely but comes back fully healthy when the beginning of the season rolls around.

In summary, though, a fantastic season for Skins fans everywhere! The highlight, of course, was beating the hated archenemy Cowboys on prime-time TV on the last week of the season for the seventh consecutive win to take the NFC East, make the playoffs and send the Cowpokes home.

All kinds of reasons to be hopeful. RG3, Alfred Morris, Darrel Young, Garçon, Trent Williams dominating, return of Orakpo, improvement of D-line and Rob Jackson in the second half of the year... Hopefully Fred Davis will decide he wants to come back too. If not, that might be ok because then they'd have the stronger run-blocking Logan Paulsen in the lineup and might be inclined to run more often.

Prediction

Very few experts are prognosticating that the Skins end up victorious. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/dc-sports-bog/wp/2013/01/03/experts-lining-up-behind-the-seahawks/

35 out of 46 media experts predict a Seattle victory in Maryland, marking the 3rd consecutive time the Skins would be bounced in the playoffs by the Seahawks.

Hard to disagree, though.

Russell Wilson is just now starting to expand his offensive repertoire. Suddenly they are bludgeoning opponents to the tune of 58, 50, and 42 points.

The Seattle defense is a huge strength. Their corners are really big (6'2" and 6'3") and perfect for bump and run that would disrupt the timing of Kyle Shanahan's quick hitting passing game. They'll stack the box and play 1-on-1 outside with their corners. If Morris and the O-line can beat the Seahawks in the run game, the Skins have a chance.

Prediction: 30 - 16, Seahawks over the Redskins