NFL Draft Day Two

I won't pretend to have heard of any of the players drafted by the Redskins on day two other than Hawaii QB Colt Brennan.

Judging from the descriptions on nfl.com, though, it appears that the 2008 Redskins draft graded quite well. On day two, they got a couple of defensive backs from big-time programs (Tryon from ASU and Horton from UCLA) and a defensive back from a small program but with good "measurables" (Kareem Moore from Nicolls State). In addition, they all appear to be valuable special teams contributors, a major plus. I predict at least one will stick with the club and it's possible that two of them will.

Rinehart appears to project well as an interior lineman. Between the returns of Randy Thomas and Jon Jansen along with experienced starting backups Jason Fabini, Stephon Heyer and Todd Wade returning, the OL appears fortified. The concern is age and injury history. Projected OL starters on October 1: Samuels (31), Thomas (32), Rabach (31), Kendall (35), and Jansen (32).

Youth on the DL served the team well last year as youngsters Anthony Montgomery and Kedric Golston provided a needed interior push. If anyone has seen them up close and should have confidence in them, it would be Greg Blache. I'd be surprised if the 7th rounder DE makes the 53-man roster.

The "gambles" would be the punter and Brennan. Both seem worthy gambles with 6th round picks. Brennan has plenty of time to sit and develop as a scout-teaming, clipboard-toting 3rd string QB.

The glaring need not addressed by the draft was LB where starter Rocky McIntosh may not be ready to play until 2009 because of two torn knee ligaments. The Skins will have to hope to sign a serviceable LB in free agency.

NFL Draft Day One

1. Devin Thomas, WR. I am SO glad that the Redskins traded out of their spot at #21. I was really hoping that they would draft Aqib Talib but unfortunately, he was picked one spot (#20) earlier by the Buccaneers. It's also too bad that the Skins couldn't draft DE Phillip Merling when they got around to picking at #34.

However, I'm not happy with the pick of a receiver. The Redskins just don't have a good history of drafting WRs with their top choice since Hall of Famer Art Monk. Desmond Howard. Michael Westbrook. Rod Gardner. On the plus side, Devin Thomas was rated the top receiver in the draft. How he'll fit with Zorn's offense will be very interesting.

2. Fred Davis, TE. At first, I was extremely upset with this pick. Seemed like such a waste with Chris Cooley at the position. However, as I started to think about all the potential mismatches during 2 TE sets, it occurred to me that a second Chris Cooley would be a more effective contributor than a big WR. While I was hoping that the team would address defensive needs, I'm fairly satisfied with the pick of the USC tight end.

3. Malcolm Kelly, WR. Ah, the player that I really hoped that Cerrato and folks would not draft at #21. It's great that he didn't cost them a first round pick. But they already added two weapons on offense and return their top two receivers so I still dislike this decision. Is it really likely that the Skins will have two rookies contribute immediately in Zorn's newly installed offense? I'd be very surprised if that was the case. It's more likely that one of the rookies doesn't catch more than 20 passes for 300 yards.

In review, these draft picks put Randle El (728 yards last season) on the trading block. He would be a great fit in St. Louis where Isaac Bruce is gone, Torry Holt isn't happy, and former coordinator Al Saunders is calling the plays. The Rams will probably wait to see if he gets released.

Ocho Cinco

Kudos to Vinny Cerrato for attempting to trade for Chad Johnson. He is definitely worth two hit-or-miss first round picks. He should have another 3-4 good years left. It's too bad that it didn't work out.

On a related note, though, it seems a bit ridiculous that NFL players are decrying the contracts they signed just a couple years ago, saying that they've "outplayed" their contracts. What's the point of signing a contract in the first place if you don't abide by it and play to the best of your ability? This only tells me that all players have to negotiate in their contracts performance escalator clauses.

Malcolm Kelly

Don't do it! Don't draft Malcolm Kelly in the 1st round. If CB Aqib Talib is available, draft him to replace Shawn Springs.

When I see Malcolm Kelly, I can only think of one thing - Rod Gardner.

Jerome Mathis

I don't understand the move to sign Mathis when the Skins already have recently re-signed Rock Cartwright and also have Ladell Betts back to return kickoffs. They have Randle El to return punts. And they have James Thrash as a proven backup for both return spots. It would have made sense if the team had lost Cartwright to free agency but since they didn't, the Mathis signing is a head scratcher.

Darrell Green

February 2, 2008 was an amazing day for Washington Redskins football fans as two recent legends of the game were inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. For Darrell Green, it was hard to see him not being a first ballot HOF'er. For Art Monk, it was a long time coming.

Darrell Green played at a high level for an inconceivable 20 years. He played in three Super Bowls and won two (XXII and XXVI). Green probably could have played a few more years too because he was still running a 4.2 40 at 40 (years old). He had won the NFL's fastest man competition four years in a row, and Wikipedia states that he has the fastest 40 time ever recorded (4.09). Besides speed, Green's longevity was key. It's amazing to think about all the fellow corners Green played opposite -- Vernon Dean ('82-'87), Barry Wilburn ('85-'89), AJ Johnson ('89-'94), Martin Mayhew ('89-'92), Tom Carter ('93-'96), Cris Dishman ('97-'98), Champ Bailey ('99-'02), Deion Sanders ('00), and Fred Smoot ('01-'02).

In addition to his speed and extraordinary longevity, Green also had some "signature plays," including chasing down Tony Dorsett on Monday Night Football and his punt return against the Bears in a divisional playoff game.

Jim Zorn, Dan Snyder, and Vinny Cerrato

One Washington Post article I read when Jim Zorn was first hired questioned Dan Snyder's qualification at judging Jim Zorn. Specifically, he said to Joe Gibbs, "This guy (Zorn) would make a terrific head coach."

The questioning of his assessment ability is spot-on. Snyder has no idea what makes a "terrific head coach." His best coaching hire was one that was already voted into the Hall of Fame coach.

What's the most galling to Redskins fans is the lack of a credible organizational support structure. As long as Snyder owns the team, which may be for the rest of his life, Vinny Cerrato will have a job as de facto GM. Gibbs was the only one to which they were going to defer There won't be another football man like that (unless Bill Belichick goes crazy and decides he wants to work under crazy-man Snyder).

The Skins may have enough talent and schemes to compete. But if they ever do make it in the playoffs, they won't go very far. And they won't be able to compete consistently (see previous post about 2-year grace period for coaches). A quality long-term core just isn't there and won't be until Cerrato retires.

Jarvis

Darrell Jackson

The release of DJack by the 49ers gives the Redskins a good option in case Hackett doesn't sign. In fact, the team should have him visit Redskins Park immediately as he is a proven commodity with three 1,000 yard seasons under his belt. While he is likely on the downside of his career, he doesn't turn 30 until the end of the year so he's a veteran who knows the offense and could be reinvigorated by the change of scenery.

DJ Hackett

Bringing on board a veteran WR familiar with the West Coast offense like DJ Hackett would be a much better move than drafting one. Very few rookie WR's would be able to contribute immediately. This is even more the case for a team like the Skins learning an entirely new offense.

Signing Hackett (assuming a reasonable price) allows focus on the first round to be on the defensive line.

Draft Outlook

According to the Washington Post, Jim Zorn appears to be targeting a bigger wide receiver for his West Coast offense. Question is, can a rookie WR making the jump to the pros contribute? Probably not unless he's a high first rounder. Zorn also will be drafting a young QB to develop behind Campbell.

Blache needs an active lineman to help Andre Carter. At DT, Cornelius Griffin's best days are behind him. The Skins would best be served drafting a DE with their 1st round pick.

Blache also wants CB depth for the injury-prone trio of Rogers, Springs, and Smoot.

After the experience of last year's makeshift OL, the Skins need to add depth and youth there.

The only positions the team is set at are RB, TE, LB, and special teams.

In my mind, priorities ought to be:
1) DE
2) CB
3) WR
4) OG
5) DT
6) OT
7) QB

Returnees

It's quite the trend this free agency period. Griese back to the Bucs. Kearse back to the Titans. Muhammed back to the Panthers. Booker back to the Bears.

(I pity the Bears who signed Brandon Lloyd. But I pity the Skins for having wasted $10 million on him in the first place. Yes, he made some nice plays against the Skins as a Niner but there was never any sign of consistency or promise that warranted a $10 million contract. That is a clear example of why Cerrato fails in the much-needed GM capacity. I'm sure Gibbs wasn't the one who wanted Lloyd.)

Gregg Williams and Jim Zorn

He deserved so much better. Four years as heir apparent. Support of the team and fans. Support of yours truly. Four long interviews.

But he obviously sealed his own fate all along. He apparently had never reached out to form a relationship with Snyder. He hadn't earned Snyder's admiration and respect. He didn't have the charm that Snyder found with Zorn (and seemingly saw in Mora as well).

It was a big mistake not to let Gibbs know about the 10-player thing after Taylor's death. Of course Gibbs would have given his blessing. But by catching Gibbs off guard withthat, Williams didn't appear to pay the same homage to him that Snyder would have expected.

Gregg Williams moves on to a better situation. So long as Snyder and Cerrato are in charge, the best coach for the Skins was Gibbs. No other coach will ever have the same respect from Snyder unless he can immediately have the Skins contending in the playoffs and do so consistently.

Zorn will have two years. Mark my words. If there is ever a two-year period where the Skins aren't in the playoffs (including these first two), he will be gone. Say he pulls it off and has the Skins contending and even wins a Super Bowl (knock on wood). If he then hits a dry spell, that SB will probably buy him one extra year of leeway. So three years out of the playoffs and he's gone. .

Sean Taylor

Heartbreaking loss. Sports figures are so magnified in our society through the media that a loss like that really feels like we've lost a friend. Many of us feel that way even though we may not have actually met #21.

I watched the video tributes available online (on redskins.com and washingtonpost.com). Was anybody able to watch those tributes and maintain dry eyes.

There was no denying his talent. No denying his ferocity. No denying his love for the game. And that was all recognized with the Pro Bowl nod.

And then there were the personal family circumstances. So young (same age as my youngest brother). A young daughter who will grow up without him. A troubled past that he appeared to be putting behind him. Sean Taylor, we barely knew you but what we did know, we loved. Rest in peace.

Moody Blogswings

The problem I've found with blogging about my favorite sports team is that when they lose, I don't feel like rehashing and dissecting their loss in detail. I'm depressed that they lost and can't stand to read about it on washingtonpost.com. By the same token, when they're winning, I can't get enough. So I've been an absentee blogger for much of the season.

What about their winning stretch when they won a bunch in a row to get into the playoffs? First, it was just hard to blog after the Sean Taylor tragedy. Second, we die-hard sports fans all have our supersitions and know about jinxing a good thing. (And of course there was the whole finding time issue) However, I resolve to be a more consistent blogger about the Skins in 2008.

Running the Rock

It's hard to run the football when your starting offensive line has been decimated by injuries. From last year's O-line, only Chris Samuels and Casey Rabach are playing.

Derrick Dockery, who now has his own ugly Web site, departed for the Buffalo Bills. Outstanding OG Randy Thomas has endured a season-ending injury for the second consecutive season. Jon Jansen also suffered a season-ending injury (breaking his ankle), for the second time in four seasons.

On the plus side, although Pete Kendall joined late, he appears to have plugged in. Rabach was injured last week with a groin injury but is back. The question is on the right side with Jason Fabini and Todd Wade subbing in for Thomas and Jansen, respectively.

It's not for a lack of attempts, which is positive but the unit has shown no signs of jelling. The team is averaging only 3.5 yards per rush.

Redskins Fantasy Outlook

The upcoming game with the Jets, while familiar for many on the team, hopes to provide a refreshing respite for several key Redskins players.

Against the Jets

Kellen Clemens is suspect. Gregg Williams is sure to mix it up for the fresh faced quarterback leading the 24th-ranked offense. He could be in for a few turnovers.

That said, Laveranues Coles has had a solid season thus far. He obviously left on bad terms with the team and will be motivated to have a good day against his former team. He's the kind of shifty receiver that finds nice holes in the Redskins coverage. He could be the one offensive spark - 100+ yards and 1-2 scores.

Thomas Jones has had a quiet year with no TDs. The Skins plan to keep it that way, presumably playing a more attacking-style defense and force Clemens to air it out to Coles and Cotchery. The attacking and crowded-at-the-line defense should keep things bottled up for Jones, keeping him under 80 yards.

On the Skins side of the ball, the defense is poised to have a big game against the offensively challenged Jets.

Joe Gibbs and Al Saunders should be able to re-trench and establish the running game with Clinton Portis. He may finally get his 100 yard game. He's had a tough time running behind the makeshift line but he should finally see some success. It will help that Vilma is now out.

It's also time for Santana Moss to shine. Like Portis, he has yet to have a 100 yard game as well. He should be good for at least 1 or 2 deep shots down the field. He still has to make up for his horrible game against the Packers.

4 TEs have scored against the Jets, so that bodes well for Chris Cooley.

4-3

This is about where the Skins figured to be.

The 2-0 start was nice - a good start by getting past the struggling Dolphins and Eagles teams. The Eagles game, in paticular, was a surprise.
The Giants game was definitely a lost opportunity - up 17-3 at halftime and crumbling at the end.
It was surprising that the Skins were able to bounce back and crush the high-flying Lions but they definitely had the secondary to do it.
The Packers game seemed close but never quite close enough after halftime. Given their great season thus far (and Brett Favre's in particular), the Packers figure to challenge for NFC supremacy.
The Cardinals game had all the makings of the Giants game especially with the late touchdown and then recovered onsides kick by the Cards. The Skins were extremely lucky that the FG attempted sailed wide.
The Patriots game was an automatic loss for sure. For the team, it was actually a no-lose situation since they were 16-point underdogs.
The Skins desperately need a win against Kellen Clemens and the 1-7 Jets to reach 5-3 at the halfpoint mark.

After the Jets, 7 of the remaining 8 games are against NFC foes, including 4 division games.

The Skins have proven themselves to be a middle of the pack team. They should go 8-8 or 9-7. The Saints will likely make a latter-season push for the playoff picture and the Giants, Lions, and Bucs all figure to be there as well.

With the season loss of Carlos Rogers and most of the offensive line, the Skins will probably finish 2-3 games behind in the wild card race.

Reasons for optimism:
* Laron Landry and Sean Taylor
* If the O-line can jell to create a dominating rushing attack (it hasn't worked thus far)
* If Santana Moss gets it together
* Continued development of Jason Campbell

2-0

Far better than 0-2.

Great:
* Campbell's poise -- able to make big plays with his 20-yard scamper and the beautiful TD toss to Cooley
* Redskins defense containing McNabb

Good:
* Redskins defense smothering inept Eagles receivers
* Commitment to the running game

Whew:
* Beat the Fins with a brand new QB and offensive system
* Skins were lucky McNabb was off
* Bend but don't break defensive philosophy held up

Bad/Concerning:
* Campbell throwing the INT after double-clutching
* Randy Thomas' injury -- now the Skins only have 2 healthy starters on the line from beginning of season
* Campbell overthrowing a wide-open Moss that could have ended the game
* Middle of schedule looks much tougher than it did at the beginning of the season (Lions, Cardinals, Packers)

Predictions

The beginning of the season always imbues fans with a renewed sense of optimism. The Redskins were especially good at that a few years ago with spectacular offseasons. However, the last couple have been quiet. Per my previous post, the organization has actually not sparked any excitement in fans about the strides made to improve upon last season.

Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys will start out impressively and have pundits calling them real contenders in the conference. The Boys will then run into trouble mid-way or late into the season. TO will start speaking out and Wade Phillips, who everyone will have raved about early in the season, will have arrows thrown at him. If the Cowboys even make it into the playoffs, they'll stumble in with a 9-7 record.

New York Giants
Coughlin drama continues. Eli inconsistency continues. Barber's rushing presence is greatly missed. Players have an axe to grind against Coughlin's methods. Unlike other seasons, the Giants won't have a fast finish and will miss the playoffs with a sub-500 season.

Philadelphia Eagles
Questions abound. Will Reid be distracted by off-field domestic troubles? Can Westbrook stay healthy again? Can McNabb stay healthy? Will Brian Dawkins still play at a high level (he's turning 34)? I'm guessing these all turn out in Philly's favor and they win the NFC East again at 11-5.

Where does that put the Redskins? I'm still not sold on Jason Campbell. Supposedly he looked sharp in coaches' eyes during camp but that's different than a full-speed NFL game. In his 5-5 performance against the Jags, Campbell really only had the one impressive toss to Randle El, and that was more about Randle El making the play. The other completions were throws under ten yards. The other big question mark is the offensive line. At this point, I'd estimate 6-10 for the Redskins. The big test is week 2 against the Eagles on Monday Night Football.

Season Starts Anew

It's been a long time between posting. It has been tough to recover from the embarrassing 5-11 that was last season. In addition, the team has done little to bring cause for hope during the offseason.

Needs:
(1) General Manager - not addressed
(2) D-line - not addressed
(3) LG-replacement for Derrick Dockery - TBD
(4) Bolster secondary - addressed
(5) Overall team youth/depth - not addressed
(6) Get rid of Brandon Lloyd - not addressed

(1) Gibbs and Gregg Williams should focus on coaching not personnel, as the Washington Post clearly pointed out in a series of January articles. With Gibbs having title of team president and seemingly oblivious to the need for a top-notch personnel man (Cerrato is not even close to working), it doesn't look as though this will change in the next few years.

(2) All subsequent needs relate to (1). Williams doesn't feel the need to have a premier pass-rusher because he gets pressure from blitzes. The downside is that blitzing to create pressure is a high-risk strategy and regularly ineffective at stretches last year. A front four capable of collapsing the pocket without extra rushers is worth its weight in gold.

(3) The Skins were right not to give Dockery the ridiculous amount of money the Bills threw at him. Good to him for being able to get that kind of cash but he wasn't an elite player with Pro Bowls under his belt. On the flip side, no one stepped up during the offseason. Now fans have to pray that 34-year old Pete Kendall is the answer. This is a guy who was solid for the Jets but is playing his last season or two, has not yet lined up with Chris Samuels, and is just now starting to learn the playbook.

(4) The Skins did well here with Laron Landry, Smoot, and David Macklin. Springs' durability was a major factor in the Skins' success the past two seasons. Macklin has been a starting corner in the league and to have him as the 4th corner provides a lot of necessary depth because the first three are likely to be banged up at some point in the season. The question might be: was Laron Landry really necessary given the return of Pierson Prioleau? Could that pick have gone to better use on the D-line? Again, back to the lack of a GM.

(5) Again, the lack of a GM hurts the team. The Skins have made draft-day moves that have hurt them like sacrificing multiple picks to get Jason Campbell and leaving the team with only the single first-day pick during the 2007 draft. HB Blades was the only other draft pick to make the team.

(6) Lloyd is a waste of roster slot who the Skins never should have signed. He was a headache for the 49ers. Inconsistent at best, undisciplined at worst. I don't understand why Corey Bradford or Todd Pinkston didn't beat him out but then again, I wasn't in training camp.